Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 22.799326 24.118492 25.513408 27.105133 28.879711 30.807463 33.073864
2025-12-28 21.193810 23.010886 25.024998 27.446549 30.311603 33.636699 37.854772
2026-01-04 19.759371 21.782598 24.089007 26.952786 30.472700 34.743024 40.459517
2026-01-11 19.142255 21.397919 24.036891 27.415374 31.725656 37.195210 44.946558
2026-01-18 18.529136 20.946088 23.834172 27.627060 32.623080 39.220252 49.076048
2026-01-25 17.722111 20.196020 23.197852 27.215076 32.635735 40.018236 51.526254
2026-02-01 16.986580 19.487398 22.560886 26.739946 32.497047 40.553596 53.606247
2026-02-08 16.100023 18.546447 21.576968 25.738838 31.548107 39.821383 53.571681
2026-02-15 15.906915 18.468352 21.689876 26.200383 32.661462 42.193044 58.895382
2026-02-22 15.650624 18.293067 21.660158 26.454684 33.482660 44.189483 63.918364
2026-03-01 15.064987 17.666772 21.003536 25.795088 32.901092 43.907891 64.738433
2026-03-08 14.282578 16.760485 19.942560 24.519864 31.324432 41.900624 62.028705
2026-03-15 13.905259 16.426699 19.707358 24.508755 31.822002 43.597795 67.372096
2026-03-22 13.642874 16.236635 19.661290 24.772950 32.781410 46.233018 75.483947
2026-03-29 13.180951 15.755618 19.184788 24.363984 32.619258 46.857701 79.368444
2026-04-05 13.015104 15.664813 19.242904 24.750242 33.778563 50.056524 90.562500
2026-04-12 12.796840 15.490771 19.170899 24.927216 34.596525 52.736806 101.741536
2026-04-19 12.437877 15.108034 18.781133 24.582888 34.476025 53.507802 107.808726
2026-04-26 12.086406 14.723644 18.372836 24.184983 34.224727 53.967481 113.172200
2026-05-03 11.626371 14.174455 17.705971 23.343600 33.116830 52.454131 111.277730
2026-05-10 11.541437 14.148734 17.803230 23.732010 34.275176 56.087462 130.046572
2026-05-17 11.412711 14.055579 17.795140 23.945647 35.126910 59.199526 149.875076
2026-05-24 11.085971 13.670560 17.337249 23.390983 34.464887 58.580714 152.357628